Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 1.157935 1.213999 1.271744 1.335778 1.404933 1.477512 1.559635
2025-11-16 1.061922 1.140616 1.224793 1.321960 1.431571 1.552030 1.695308
2025-11-23 1.007071 1.099188 1.200249 1.320166 1.459648 1.618120 1.813754
2025-11-30 0.970432 1.073157 1.188233 1.327966 1.494808 1.689944 1.938976
2025-12-07 0.927862 1.036657 1.160554 1.313802 1.500714 1.724632 2.018526
2025-12-14 0.886446 0.998769 1.128434 1.291312 1.493581 1.740946 2.073684
2025-12-21 0.854788 0.970561 1.105892 1.278343 1.496161 1.767827 2.142043
2025-12-28 0.838467 0.959654 1.103165 1.288814 1.527552 1.831670 2.261617
2026-01-04 0.818263 0.942947 1.092260 1.287954 1.543613 1.875462 2.355772
2026-01-11 0.805826 0.935074 1.091626 1.299586 1.575760 1.941402 2.484091
2026-01-18 0.788276 0.920062 1.081230 1.297790 1.589474 1.982360 2.578598
2026-01-25 0.767742 0.900538 1.064277 1.286461 1.589391 2.003609 2.644715
2026-02-01 0.744417 0.877227 1.042246 1.268252 1.579989 2.012455 2.694746
2026-02-08 0.723347 0.856204 1.022513 1.252346 1.572984 2.024195 2.749836
2026-02-15 0.709685 0.844207 1.013997 1.251027 1.585983 2.065098 2.852903
2026-02-22 0.700294 0.837372 1.011901 1.258169 1.610988 2.124618 2.989968
2026-03-01 0.683511 0.820380 0.995747 1.245139 1.606061 2.138407 3.051873
2026-03-08 0.664620 0.800134 0.974655 1.224430 1.588908 2.132337 3.079184
2026-03-15 0.649971 0.785126 0.960174 1.212482 1.584074 2.144887 3.139164
2026-03-22 0.644076 0.781554 0.960987 1.222129 1.611660 2.209566 3.295906
2026-03-29 0.634685 0.773034 0.954750 1.221337 1.623226 2.248927 3.409779
2026-04-05 0.629815 0.770436 0.956505 1.232050 1.652681 2.318764 3.586234
2026-04-12 0.620867 0.762077 0.950014 1.230397 1.662703 2.356674 3.704788